02Airline Collapse· high impact
Alaska Air Pulls 2026 Forecast as Jet Fuel Hits $4.50/Gallon
Alaska Air reported a Q1 net loss of $193 million, with jet fuel averaging $2.98 per gallon during the quarter. The airline now projects fuel costs spiking to $4.50 per gallon in Q2 — a 51% jump — and withdrew its full-year 2026 profit forecast entirely. Q2 EPS is guided to a loss of approximately $1.00. When a carrier can't see far enough to forecast a full year, the cost uncertainty is industry-wide, not company-specific: Delta, United, and Southwest earnings due in late April and early May will either confirm or contain the damage. Airlines are uninvestable until oil finds a ceiling.
03Fed Chair Succession· high impact
Warsh Path Clears After DOJ Drops Powell Probe
The Justice Department closed its criminal investigation into Jerome Powell this week, removing the key political obstacle to Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair. Senator Thom Tillis reversed his opposition shortly after, giving Warsh a cleaner Senate path. Warsh is widely regarded as more hawkish than Powell — meaning higher-for-longer rates, pressure on long-duration bonds, and a headwind for rate-sensitive growth stocks. Reports also surfaced that Warsh may end the post-meeting press conference Q&A format, which would reduce Fed transparency and structurally increase volatility around every future FOMC decision. The bond market is not fully pricing a Warsh Fed yet — and that is a risk.