Ukraine Drone Strikes Hit Two Russian Refineries, Crimea Emergency Declared

Attacks on Russian refinery capacity introduce upside risk to European energy prices — particularly diesel and heating oil — which have been sensitive to supply disruptions throughout the conflict. Energy stocks with Russian exposure and European utilities could see volatility, while oil majors operating in stable regions may catch a modest tailwind if supply fears widen the risk premium on crude.

Next weekly EIA crude inventory report (~mid-week): watch for any demand/supply signals. Next EU energy ministers meeting: any coordinated response to escalation. Ongoing: OPEC+ output policy signals.