04Tariff Reversal
$100B Tariff Refund Hits Corporate Importers After Supreme Court Ruling
The Supreme Court struck down IEEPA-based levies in February, and the resulting $100 billion refund now flowing to importers represents 60% of the $166 billion collected under the Liberation Day program. Retailers, manufacturers, and consumer goods companies that absorbed these costs get direct margin relief. The complication: supply chains that repriced around the tariffs now face sudden cost recalibration, which pressures domestic producers who benefited from the tariff shield. Separately, a coalition of US states sued to block tariffs on 60 trading partners — if a court grants an injunction, a second wave of tariff relief accelerates into the same supply chains.
05AI Earnings Split
Palantir Leads Nasdaq; Spotify, Uber Guide Down in Same Week
Palantir posted its strongest weekly performance since 2024, with 90%-plus revenue growth and a narrow 2026 guidance band of $8.15 billion to $8.158 billion signaling management conviction. Eli Lilly raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $87 billion after a 48% Q2 revenue jump. On the other side: Spotify missed EPS by €0.14 and revenue by €10 million despite hitting 300 million subscribers, and Uber's Q3 guidance landed below consensus despite a Q2 beat. The pattern is clear — AI-native and drug-franchise companies are widening the gap on everyone else.
06European Industrial Surge
Siemens and Siemens Energy Both Post Records, Raise 2026 Guidance
Siemens delivered record Q3 profit on software demand and overseas machinery orders, then raised full-year 2026 guidance. Siemens Energy posted a 70% profit jump to €1.26 EPS on €11.45 billion in quarterly revenue, with the wind unit returning to profitability for the first time since the restructuring began. The DAX hit an all-time high on the same week, assisted by falling oil prices tied to US-Iran peace talks. European industrials are not a value trap anymore — they are generating genuine earnings revisions.