Alaska Air posted a net loss of $193 million in Q1 2025, with jet fuel averaging $2.98 per gallon during the quarter. The airline now expects fuel costs to spike to $4.50 per gallon in Q2, and has withdrawn its full-year 2026 profit forecast entirely. Q2 earnings per share is projected to come in at a loss of roughly $1.00, though Q1 results did beat Wall Street's expectations.
Alaska Air's guidance withdrawal is a yellow flag for the entire airline sector — when one carrier can't see far enough ahead to forecast profits, it signals broad cost uncertainty that likely affects competitors too. Fuel is typically the single largest operating expense for airlines, so a 51% jump in fuel costs from Q1 to Q2 directly compresses margins across the industry. Investors holding airline ETFs or individual carrier stocks should expect near-term earnings pressure and potential guidance cuts from peers reporting in coming weeks.
Late April to early May: Delta, United, and Southwest Q1 earnings reports will reveal whether fuel cost pressure is industry-wide. May 15 (approx.): EIA weekly jet fuel price report. June: IATA publishes mid-year airline industry outlook.
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