US forces carried out military strikes against Iran after Iranian forces attacked a civilian vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical oil shipping corridors. Iran justified the attack by claiming the vessel was using an unauthorized route, then declared the strait closed to maritime traffic. Separately, at a NATO summit, President Trump announced that Ukraine will receive a license to manufacture Patriot air defense systems, a development that signals escalating Western military support independent of the Iran situation.
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global oil supply. Any closure, even a temporary or partial one, pushes oil prices up sharply, which hits airline stocks, consumer discretionary names, and transport companies while benefiting energy producers. Broader equity indices tend to sell off on geopolitical shocks of this magnitude, and Treasury bonds typically catch safe-haven demand.
Watch for: any official US or UN response on the strait closure within the next 48-72 hours. Weekly US crude inventory data from the EIA, typically released every Wednesday. Next FOMC meeting for any Fed commentary on inflation from an oil spike.
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