The United States and Iran have reached agreement on the text of a peace deal, with a formal signing anticipated within days — reportedly scheduled for Sunday. The development comes alongside G7 discussions about clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil flows. Separately, US consumer prices posted their fastest annual increase in three years, and Washington imposed fresh tariffs on Switzerland over forced labor concerns.
A durable US-Iran agreement would ease one of the most significant geopolitical risk premiums embedded in oil prices, potentially pushing crude lower and compressing energy sector margins. Lower oil prices are broadly stimulative — good for consumer discretionary, airlines, and transport — but bad for energy stocks. The simultaneous acceleration in US inflation complicates the Federal Reserve's path, keeping pressure on rate-sensitive assets like long-duration bonds and growth equities.
Sunday: Scheduled US-Iran peace deal signing. Next G7 Summit: Hormuz mine-removal discussion among allied leaders. Next CPI release: ~mid-month for latest US inflation reading. Next FOMC meeting: watch for Fed reaction to inflation acceleration.
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