The United States and Iran have struck an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ending a months-long conflict that had disrupted one of the world's most critical oil shipping corridors. S&P 500 futures surged 1.3% in premarket trading on the news. The deal is described as interim, meaning full normalization of traffic through the strait has not yet been confirmed.
The Strait of Hormuz is the passage for roughly 20% of global oil supply — a closure raises energy prices and squeezes corporate margins across virtually every sector. A reopening removes a major risk premium from crude oil prices, which should relieve inflationary pressure and lift equity valuations broadly, with energy stocks facing a mixed outcome as oil prices could fall. Risk assets including equities and credit spreads stand to benefit most immediately.
June 15: US equity market open will confirm whether premarket gains hold. Upcoming: Any official OPEC+ response to Hormuz reopening. Upcoming: Next US CPI inflation report (~July 15) will show whether easing oil prices feed through to broader inflation data. Upcoming: Next FOMC meeting (~July 28-29) where Fed officials may reassess the inflation outlook.
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