President Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and imposed restrictions on vessels calling at Iranian ports, sharply escalating US-Iran tensions. Oil surged back above $100 per barrel in response. US stock and bond markets both fell on the news.
The Strait of Hormuz is the single most important oil chokepoint on earth — roughly 20% of global oil supply passes through it. Oil above $100 raises costs across the entire economy, pressuring corporate margins and consumer spending while stoking inflation. A simultaneous drop in both stocks and bonds signals that investors are pricing in a stagflationary shock, which is one of the hardest environments for any portfolio to navigate.
Ongoing: OPEC+ emergency response and whether member nations comply with or circumvent the blockade. Watch for any Iranian military action against Gulf shipping lanes. Next major inflation data: CPI report will reflect early energy price impacts. Congressional and allied diplomatic reaction in coming days.
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