Washington has established a 60-day negotiating framework with Iran covering uranium enrichment limits, sanctions relief, and the release of frozen assets — though Trump publicly signaled no urgency to finalize terms. Simultaneously, Secretary of State Rubio wrapped a four-day diplomatic mission to India, with both governments now described as near completion on a bilateral trade agreement. Adding another variable, Trump paused a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan, signaling a potential recalibration of U.S. posture in the Indo-Pacific.
A credible Iran deal would pressure oil prices lower by bringing sanctioned Iranian barrels back to market — a headwind for energy stocks but a tailwind for inflation-sensitive sectors and consumer spending. The India trade agreement, if finalized, opens one of the world's fastest-growing economies to deeper U.S. commercial ties, benefiting multinationals with Indian exposure. The Taiwan arms pause introduces geopolitical uncertainty that could weigh on defense contractors and rattle sentiment around semiconductor supply chains.
Ongoing: Iran negotiation developments within the 60-day window (no fixed end date yet established). Imminent: Formal announcement of U.S.-India trade agreement terms expected within weeks per Rubio. Watch for OPEC+ production meeting responses to Iran supply signals. Monitor any White House statement on the Taiwan arms sale resumption or direct Trump-Lai call.
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