Trump Says Iran Nuclear Deal 'Largely Negotiated,' Odds at 50-50

A credible Iran deal would likely push oil prices lower by opening the door to increased Iranian crude exports — potentially 1–2 million additional barrels per day hitting global markets. That's a headwind for energy stocks and oil-linked assets, but a tailwind for consumers, transport sectors, and inflation expectations. Reduced Middle East tension also tends to compress the geopolitical risk premium priced into broader markets.

Ongoing: Direct US-Iran negotiating rounds (next session timing unconfirmed). Watch for IAEA verification announcements. Oil market reaction to any formal deal signing. June 2025 OPEC+ meeting for supply response.