Trump Rejects Iran's Counteroffer — Strait of Hormuz Closure May Persist

The Strait of Hormuz is the single most important chokepoint for global oil and LNG flows — roughly 20% of the world's traded oil passes through it. A prolonged closure keeps energy prices elevated, which feeds into inflation and pressures central banks to hold rates higher for longer, a drag on equities broadly. Energy producers benefit from high prices, while airlines, shipping companies, and consumer discretionary stocks face rising input costs.

Ongoing: Any official statement from Iran or the U.S. State Department on resumed negotiations. Trump-Xi summit in Beijing this week: watch for joint statements touching on energy and Middle East diplomacy. Weekly EIA crude inventory report (every Wednesday): will signal how much the supply disruption is tightening actual oil supplies.