U.S. President Donald Trump visited Beijing for the first time in nearly a decade, meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in a summit that produced sharply mixed signals. Xi issued a direct warning that mishandling Taiwan could lead to conflict — calling it the single most important issue in the bilateral relationship — while simultaneously signaling to executives from Tesla, Apple, and Nvidia that China remains open for foreign business. In a further wrinkle, China briefly halted licenses for U.S. beef exporters shortly after reinstating them, and April credit data came in well below expectations, with new bank loans contracting on weak domestic demand.
The summit creates a bifurcated environment: geopolitical risk around Taiwan keeps a ceiling on how bullish anyone can get on U.S.-China trade normalization, while Xi's pro-business messaging to U.S. tech executives offers near-term relief for companies with heavy China exposure like Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia. Weak Chinese credit data is a separate but important signal — shrinking loan demand points to a sluggish Chinese consumer and industrial sector, which is bearish for commodity demand and global growth expectations. The beef license reversal is a reminder that trade goodwill can evaporate quickly.
Ongoing: Watch for follow-up U.S.-China trade communiqués and any formal statements on Taiwan policy. June 2025: China's May credit and lending data (will reveal if April's contraction was seasonal or structural). Any Nvidia, Apple, or Tesla guidance updates mentioning China market access. Monitor Strait of Hormuz shipping developments given Xi's opposition to toll charges.
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