President Trump signaled a potential deal with Iran to end the seven-week conflict may be close, but a core disagreement remains: the US and Iran are not aligned on whether Iran committed to surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile. Separately, Trump stated he expects his incoming Federal Reserve chair nominee to cut interest rates.
An Iran deal — if it holds — would ease a geopolitical risk premium that has been quietly supporting oil prices, which could push crude lower and provide relief to inflation-sensitive portfolios. However, the unresolved nuclear enrichment dispute means this is fragile; any breakdown puts oil, defense stocks, and safe-haven assets back in play. The Fed chair comment adds a second layer: markets are watching whether Trump's pick signals a more dovish monetary policy path ahead.
Ongoing: Iran nuclear negotiation updates and any formal treaty announcements. TBD: Senate confirmation hearings for Trump's Federal Reserve chair nominee. Next FOMC meeting: July 29-30, 2025.
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