Crude oil prices are climbing as the Iran conflict escalates and shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz faces disruption — one of the world's most critical chokepoints for energy supply. European equities, led by the DAX, recovered from an earlier sharp selloff even as the energy supply risk remained unresolved. Seasonal data adds a tailwind: crude has historically delivered positive returns in the second half of the year roughly 60% of the time.
Rising oil prices driven by a genuine supply-route disruption are an inflationary shock — they push energy costs higher across the economy, pressuring margins for airlines, industrials, and consumer discretionary companies that can't easily pass costs on. Energy producers and commodity-linked equities benefit directly, while bond markets face renewed pressure if oil keeps inflation elevated and delays central bank rate cuts.
Watch for any official statements on Strait of Hormuz shipping status and Iranian escalation in the coming days. Next major oil inventory report: weekly EIA crude inventory data, typically released each Wednesday. Next US CPI inflation report: ~mid-July.
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