Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a near-complete halt, with blockades imposed by both Iran and the United States showing no signs of lifting. The strait is one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, responsible for moving roughly one-fifth of all global oil and gas supplies. Oil prices have surged in response as markets price in a sustained disruption to supply.
A prolonged Hormuz closure is an inflationary shock that hits almost every portfolio. Energy stocks and oil ETFs benefit directly from spiking crude prices, while airlines, shipping companies, and manufacturers face sharply higher input costs. Broader equity markets tend to sell off when an energy crisis threatens to slow global growth and push inflation higher simultaneously — a stagflationary combination central banks have little room to fight.
Ongoing: Daily crude oil price movements (WTI and Brent benchmarks) as the primary real-time gauge of market stress. Watch for any diplomatic statements from the U.S., Iran, or Gulf Cooperation Council nations signaling a potential resolution. Next scheduled OPEC+ monitoring meeting and any emergency session calls. U.S. CPI inflation report (next release) for early signs of energy price pass-through into broader inflation data.
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