Russia's military campaign in Ukraine has exceeded its budget by $28 billion, forcing the finance ministry to request spending freezes across other government departments. Simultaneously, Russian drones have struck energy infrastructure inside Russia and crashed into a residential building in Galați, Romania — a NATO member — prompting Bucharest to label the incident a serious escalation. A Turkish vessel was also reportedly struck, adding a new diplomatic dimension to the conflict's spillover.
A NATO member's territory being hit by Russian hardware raises the risk of Article 5 invocation discussions, which historically spikes defense stocks and pressures European equities. Russia's domestic budget strain signals a slowly deteriorating war economy — bearish for Russian assets and potentially bullish for European defense contractors already benefiting from elevated spending commitments. Energy markets should watch closely: drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure can tighten supply expectations.
Ongoing: NATO emergency consultations on the Romania drone incident. Watch for any Article 4 or Article 5 NATO meeting announcements. Next Russian budget update or Central Bank of Russia policy statement. Weekly: oil and gas price movements given strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.
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