Iranian drone strikes on oil infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates have sent crude prices surging roughly 6%, with military escalation spreading across the broader Persian Gulf region. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows — is now at the center of the tension. The spike rattled U.S. equity and bond markets simultaneously, a sign that investors are pricing in a sustained geopolitical risk premium.
A 6% oil spike hits inflation expectations immediately, which puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to stay tighter for longer — bad news for rate-sensitive stocks like tech and real estate. Energy stocks and oil-linked ETFs stand to benefit in the near term, but if the conflict widens and disrupts Hormuz shipping lanes, the supply shock could ripple into consumer prices and corporate margins across nearly every sector.
Monitor daily Strait of Hormuz shipping reports and U.S. military statements for escalation signals. Next U.S. CPI inflation report: watch for energy component impact. Next FOMC meeting: Fed rate decision and any updated commentary on inflation driven by energy prices.
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