President Trump threatened military strikes against Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices surging past $100 per barrel. The move follows failed negotiations over the Iran conflict and growing fears of a blockade on one of the world's most critical oil shipping lanes. U.S. equity markets opened lower as inflation expectations climbed alongside crude.
Oil above $100 is an inflation shock — it raises costs across the entire economy, from gasoline to manufacturing to shipping, which squeezes corporate margins and consumer spending simultaneously. The Fed becomes boxed in: rate cuts get pushed further out when energy prices spike, which is bad news for rate-sensitive sectors like tech and real estate. Energy stocks and defense contractors are the clearest near-term beneficiaries; almost everything else faces headwinds.
April 15: Any diplomatic or military developments in the Strait of Hormuz. May 13: U.S. CPI inflation report for April. May 6-7: Next FOMC rate decision meeting.
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