Oil prices reversed earlier losses and moved higher after President Trump threatened military strikes against Iran if ongoing diplomatic talks collapse. Separately, Iran's supreme leader reportedly ordered enriched uranium to remain inside the country rather than be transferred abroad, a move that rattled energy markets already sensitive to Middle East supply risk. The combination of escalating military rhetoric and Iran's uranium posture reignited fears of a potential disruption to one of the world's most strategically important oil-producing regions.
Rising oil prices are a direct tailwind for energy stocks and energy-focused ETFs like XLE, while simultaneously acting as a headwind for airlines, trucking companies, and consumer discretionary names that rely on cheap fuel costs. If crude sustains its gains, inflation data could tick back up, complicating the Federal Reserve's path toward interest rate cuts — which would pressure growth stocks and bond-sensitive assets broadly.
Ongoing: U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks (no fixed date — monitor daily news flow). Next OPEC+ monitoring meeting: June 2025. U.S. CPI inflation report: Mid-June 2025. U.S. EIA Weekly Crude Inventory Report: Every Wednesday.
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