A US-Iran ceasefire agreement pushed oil futures prices lower on expectations of potential Iranian supply returning to markets. However, North Sea physical crude prices moved sharply higher, signaling that real-world supply available for immediate delivery remains constrained. The divergence between futures and physical prices is an unusual and telling split.
When physical oil prices rise even as futures fall, it means traders who need oil right now are competing hard for limited barrels — a sign the market is tighter than the headlines suggest. This supports energy stocks and could put a floor under oil prices even if the ceasefire holds, since Iranian supply returning to market takes time and diplomatic follow-through. Investors in energy ETFs and oil majors should watch this closely.
Ongoing: Diplomatic follow-through on US-Iran ceasefire terms and any timeline for Iranian oil sanctions relief. Weekly: US EIA crude inventory report (Wednesdays) for real-time supply data. Watch OPEC+ for any response to ceasefire developments.
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