Meta issued Q2 2026 revenue guidance of $58–$61 billion and simultaneously lifted its full-year capital expenditure target to a range of $125–$145 billion. The company also missed Wall Street's quarterly earnings expectations. Shares fell in after-hours trading as investors digested the scale of planned spending alongside the earnings shortfall.
The capex increase signals Meta is doubling down on AI infrastructure at a cost that could compress profit margins for multiple quarters ahead. For investors holding Meta or broad tech ETFs, the near-term risk is earnings dilution — more cash going out the door before the returns on that spending are proven. This also puts pressure on the wider AI infrastructure trade, as it raises questions about whether the spending cycle is outpacing revenue growth.
Next major check-in will be Meta's Q2 2026 earnings release, expected late July 2026, which will show whether revenue actually lands inside the $58–$61B guided range. Also watch for any Federal Reserve commentary on tech-sector valuations in the interim FOMC meetings.
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