Prediction market platform Kalshi has received regulatory approval to offer perpetual futures contracts to U.S.-based traders, opening domestic access to a product class that has historically only been available through offshore platforms. The offshore perpetual futures market has generated over $90 trillion in annual trading volume, underscoring the massive demand that has largely bypassed U.S. exchanges until now. This marks a significant structural shift in how American retail traders can engage with leveraged, continuous-exposure contracts.
This opens a product category worth tens of trillions in global volume to U.S. retail investors for the first time in a regulated wrapper — potentially pulling significant trading activity away from offshore crypto exchanges like Binance. Regulated domestic access could compress risk premiums on crypto assets broadly and lend legitimacy to prediction and derivatives markets, which is generally constructive for crypto prices and adjacent fintech names.
Watch for the CFTC's (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) public commentary on Kalshi's product structure in the weeks following launch. Also monitor Kalshi's competitor responses — expect CME Group and Coinbase Derivatives to respond with competing filings or product expansions in Q3 2025.
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