Iranian forces carried out overnight strikes on a US military base in apparent retaliation for recent hostilities, while reports emerged that Iran and Oman had been exploring a joint tolling scheme for commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is one of the world's most critical chokepoints for oil shipments, and the Trump administration reportedly threatened severe consequences for Oman if the toll arrangement proceeded. Food prices inside the conflict zone have surged dramatically, with vegetable oil up 308%, chicken up 190%, and rice up 170% year-over-year.
Any credible threat to Hormuz transit — roughly 20% of global oil supply passes through it — immediately pressures energy prices higher and rattles risk assets broadly. An active military exchange between Iranian forces and US assets raises the probability of supply disruption from low to meaningful, which is bearish for equities and bonds but bullish for oil, defense stocks, and safe-haven assets like gold. Shipping and tanker names face both opportunity and extreme operational risk simultaneously.
Weekly: Wednesday EIA US oil inventory report — watch for supply drawdowns signaling market tightness. Ongoing: Any official White House or Pentagon statement on Hormuz rules of passage or Oman sanctions. July 29–30: Next FOMC meeting — an oil-driven inflation spike could alter the rate-cut timeline. Ongoing: Congressional briefings on US military posture in the Persian Gulf region.
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