The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy flows, has been effectively shut down for roughly three months, tightening gas supply worldwide and pushing up inflation in developed economies. An agreement to reopen the waterway appears close but is not yet finalized, leaving markets in a holding pattern. Now, forecasts for an unusually hot Asian summer threaten to pile additional demand pressure on an already strained global gas market.
Prolonged Hormuz disruption is already feeding into inflation in developed markets, which keeps pressure on central banks to hold rates higher for longer — a headwind for equities and bonds alike. Energy stocks and LNG-exposed names get a short-term lift from higher prices, but the broader market faces margin compression and consumer spending drag if gas costs keep climbing. A confirmed reopening deal could sharply reverse energy gains overnight.
Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Report (every Thursday): tracks U.S. gas inventory levels. Ongoing: diplomatic updates on Strait of Hormuz reopening agreement. June–August: Asian summer temperature forecasts from major weather agencies.
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