France's Deficit Could Hit 7% of GDP by 2030 Without Fiscal Action
Budget rapporteur Philippe Juvin has warned that France's state deficit could climb to 7% of GDP by 2030 if the government makes no policy changes. The warning comes as France already faces pressure from European Union fiscal rules that cap deficits at 3% of GDP. At the same time, French power exports hit a record in the first half of 2026, rising 36% on the back of recovering nuclear output and expanding renewables, giving the energy sector a rare tailwind.
A widening deficit path forces the French government to borrow more, which pushes up yields on French government bonds and raises the cost of financing for French banks and companies. Investors holding French sovereign debt or ETFs with heavy European exposure face spread widening risk, the gap between French and German borrowing costs growing wider, which typically drags on French equities. The energy sector is a partial offset: record power exports improve France's trade balance and boost the revenues of state-linked utilities.
Next EU Excessive Deficit Procedure review for France, expected in autumn 2026. French parliamentary budget session, typically opening in September. European Central Bank rate decision, July 24, 2026.
- State Budget: If nothing changes by 2030, deficit will rise to 7%, warns Philippe Juvin · Le Figaro Economie
- French Power Exports Jump 36% to Record on Nuclear Output Boost · Bloomberg
- Security: Germany and France agree on nuclear deterrence cooperation · Handelsblatt
- France settles border dispute with the Netherlands — 400 years later · Politico Europe
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