Morgan Stanley, following the Sintra central banking forum, sees recent Fed communications as reinforcing the case for a pause in U.S. rate hikes, while still expecting the European Central Bank to deliver at least one more increase in September. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller flagged that U.S. inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, and separately called for the Fed to scale back its reliance on forward guidance — the practice of telegraphing future rate moves to markets. Global supply chain pressures eased in June, offering some relief on the inflation front.
A confirmed Fed pause is generally supportive of U.S. equities and bonds, as it removes the immediate threat of higher borrowing costs. However, Waller's upside inflation warning keeps a future hike on the table, limiting how far markets can rally on the pause narrative. The ECB hiking in September while the Fed holds creates a transatlantic policy divergence that typically pressures the U.S. dollar lower and supports the euro, with knock-on effects for multinational earnings and emerging market assets.
July 12: U.S. CPI inflation report — the next major data point the Fed will weigh. July 26: FOMC rate decision — markets will watch for any language shift. September ECB meeting: expected rate hike decision from the European Central Bank.
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