Crude oil pushed to $85 per barrel as US-Iran tensions escalated and concern grew over potential disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The move represents a meaningful leg higher from the $79 level cited in earlier reports, suggesting the risk premium embedded in oil prices is building rather than stabilizing. Equity markets held relatively steady despite the oil surge, though the divergence between calm stocks and rising energy prices is a tension worth watching.
Oil at $85 lifts input costs across transportation, manufacturing, and consumer goods, which puts upward pressure on inflation just as central banks are trying to hold it down. Energy stocks and ETFs like XLE benefit directly, but broader equity indices face a headwind if sustained oil prices force the Fed to keep rates higher for longer. Bond prices, already under pressure, get squeezed further when inflation expectations rise.
Next US CPI inflation report (~mid-month). Next FOMC rate decision and statement. Any official statement from the US State Department or Iran's government on Hormuz shipping access.
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