China has moved to restrict exports of tungsten, a critical metal used in everything from cutting tools to defense applications, creating an immediate supply gap in global markets. Competing producers outside China — particularly in Vietnam — are seeing surging demand as buyers scramble to secure alternative sources. Separately, Beijing is signaling broader trade friction with the EU, threatening countermeasures against the bloc's new industrial investment screening law.
Tungsten producers outside China stand to gain significant pricing power and volume as Chinese supply tightens — a classic supply-shock opportunity for niche mining and materials stocks. Defense and industrial manufacturers that rely on tungsten face potential input cost increases, which could pressure margins if they cannot pass costs through to customers. The broader EU-China trade tension adds another layer of uncertainty for European industrials with China exposure.
Watch for quarterly earnings from non-Chinese tungsten producers in coming weeks. Monitor EU trade policy responses to China's threatened countermeasures, with EU-China diplomatic meetings expected in Q3 2025. Track any expansion of China's critical minerals export control list, which has been updated in waves since late 2023.
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