China's economy is flashing warning signs on multiple fronts: industrial production growth has fallen to its weakest level in nearly three years, while retail sales growth has stalled to its slowest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic. The slowdown is compounded by an energy crunch — wind and nuclear output are underperforming, forcing a return to coal and pushing energy costs higher, which is squeezing factory margins and broader economic activity.
A slowing Chinese economy puts direct pressure on global commodities, emerging market equities, and multinational companies with significant China revenue exposure — think luxury goods, semiconductors, and industrial machinery. Asian equity markets are already selling off in response, and the weakness in Chinese consumer spending signals that domestic demand cannot be relied upon to stabilize growth in the near term.
Mid-June 2025: China's fixed asset investment and urban unemployment data release. Ongoing: Iran conflict developments and their impact on LNG and coal prices. Monitor Chinese government policy announcements for stimulus signals.
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