Bitcoin has bounced off its 2026 lows after a stretch of heavy selling by large holders, who offloaded $40 billion in BTC since October 2025 before reversing course. The recovery was catalyzed by a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report, which pulled down market expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Crypto funds extended their inflow streak to five consecutive weeks, suggesting institutional demand is rebuilding.
When the largest holders stop selling and start buying, the supply pressure that crushed prices lifts, and prices can recover faster than they fell. For anyone holding BTC or spot Bitcoin ETFs, this shift in whale behavior is more meaningful than a single day's price move. The five-week inflow streak into crypto funds tells you this is not a one-day bounce driven by retail optimism.
Next U.S. CPI inflation report (~mid-month): confirms or denies the softer rate narrative. Next FOMC meeting statement: the Fed's actual signal on whether hikes are done.
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