The head of the Bank for International Settlements cautioned that government spending triggered by escalating tensions involving Iran could push inflation higher, at a time when central banks are still working to bring it under control. The warning distinguishes between blanket fiscal responses — which risk overheating economies — and more surgical, targeted measures. The BIS chief explicitly called for precision in how governments deploy spending to avoid undoing recent progress on price stability.
If governments respond to geopolitical shocks with broad fiscal stimulus rather than targeted measures, central banks may be forced to keep interest rates higher for longer — or even raise them again. That's bad for bonds, growth stocks, and rate-sensitive sectors like real estate. It also complicates the timeline for rate cuts that equity markets have been pricing in.
Ongoing: Monitor any formal fiscal packages announced by G7 or Middle East-adjacent economies in response to Iran tensions. Next major inflation checkpoints: watch for US CPI releases and any Federal Reserve or ECB communications that reference geopolitical fiscal risks in their policy statements.
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